The Mortgage Rundown

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in Nebraska have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

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On the first Friday of every month, the U.S. government releases its Non-Farm Payrolls data from the month prior. The data is more commonly known as “the jobs report” and it swings a big stick on Wall Street.

Especially now — many analysts believe job growth is tightly linked to the future of the U.S. economy.

Therefore, when January’s jobs report hits the wires at 8:45 AM ET tomorrow, Omaha home buyers would do well to pay attention. A net job reading that is much higher (or lower) than Wall Street’s expectations can make a serious change in home affordability.

Wall Street expects that the economy added 13,000 jobs last month.  It would mark the second time in 3 months that the jobs report showed a net monthly gain.

In November 2008, the economy added 4,000.

Jobs matter to the economy for a lot of reasons, but one of the biggest is that when Americans are working, Americans are buying and consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

Job growth spurs the economy and draws money to the stock market. Unfortunately for rate shoppers, that kind of stock market growth happens at the expense of the bond market which is where mortgage rates are made.

Good jobs data usually means higher mortgage rates.

Also, job growth can lead to higher home prices. This is because working homeowners are less likely to default on a mortgage versus non-working homeowners.  In this way, job growth helps hold foreclosures to a minimum which, in turn, suppresses the housing supply.

Less supply means higher prices for home buyers.

Mortgage rates are idling this morning in advance of tomorrow’s data.  If you’re shopping for a mortgage rate, the prudent play may be to lock your rate before the jobs data is released.  A jobs figure that’s higher than the 13,000 expected could cause rate to rise sharply.

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